1. A Dramatic Drop in Crime
Expected Result: 20% to 25% Reduction in Violent Crime.
The Basis:
- ✔
The Merseyside Absolute Drop: In 1988, as a coherence group reached its target size, the Merseyside region saw an immediate reversal in crime trends. While UK crime rose nationally, Merseyside’s rate fell, eventually resulting in 40% less crime than predicted by 1992. - ✔
The “Weight of Evidence”: This effect has been replicated and published in over 50 peer-reviewed studies across 40 years, appearing in journals like Social Indicators Research and the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Note on the D.C. Landmark Study: Often cited for its rigorous methodology, the 1993 Washington D.C. study proved that coherence groups can “dampen” violence even during external crises. Statistical analysis showed a 23.3% drop relative to the existing trend—proving the group acts as a powerful stabilizing force in society.
SA Impact: Based on 200,000 annual offences, a 20% reduction means 40,000 fewer crimes per year in South Australia.